I have always maintained that social networking sites are like night clubs. It’s about the “new” and the “now”. They are at their peak for a few years then fade, perhaps reappearing in new guise later. They are not like a good local pub were people come back year in and year out.
A sure sign that the end is nigh is when parents start showing up on the dance floor (I thought the Blitz would never go out of style, but apparently I was wrong).
I’ve made my concerns about Facebook pretty clear in the past, and I’m not alone. Facebook numbers have begun to decline for the first time and I suspect the exodus will increase on the back of the rise of Google+ . After just 2 weeks in closed (invite only) beta testing Google+ has 2 million users.
Some people, who perhaps haven’t been around as long as I have, (or perhaps are just less cynical) have said to me, “Facebook is different, look at the numbers of users”. To these people I say look at previous “too big to fail” online monsters – AOL, Geocities, MySpace. Facebook may be different, but I don’t think so.
I haven’t had a good look at Google+ yet and I suspect there will be some problems, not the least being how much of our lives do we want Google managing for us.
Anyway if Google+ isn’t “it” (or even if it is), something else will come along and the technogeeks and hip kids will jump ship desperately trying to stay a step ahead of their dancing parents (“Come back, I’ll show you the Macarana”).